Wednesday, October 08, 2003
Use the Schwarz, Lone Star
It struck me, while watching Schwarzenegger's victory speech, how terrified Democratic leaders must be tonight. Certainly things have been going well for the Democrats in recent months, considering the decreasing Bush poll numbers and the impressive fundraising efforts of Dean, Clark, and others. Even the "story" out of Iraq has been successfully spun as negative, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary (Iraqi citizens supporting the ouster of Saddam by an 8 to 1 margin, and a particularly Bush-vindicating David Kay interim inspection report). The Democrats even got to take some pot shots at Rush Limbaugh recently, trying to destroy an old nemesis presumably just for the hell of it. And yet, in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, Democrats not only lost the recall election, but by a shockingly wide margin -- even wider if you consider ultraconservative Republican McClintock's 12% of the vote, which combined with Schwarzenegger means California voters supported a Republican candidate by more than a two to one margin over Bustamante. (That's of total voters, by the way, not just those who supported the recall.) Think about the ramifications of this. Schwarzenegger is a candidate who is probably the closest to my views politically of any candidate in recent memory, exactly the right combination of conservative and progressive viewpoints, and he won the people over. A very good sign should I ever seriously consider politics!
But it's actually not his viewpoints and positions that I think are scaring the Democrats tonight. No, I think it's that Jay Leno introduced his acceptance speech, that tons of respected Democrats supported his candidacy, and that Maria Shriver and many in the "Kennedy Clan" were cheering on stage for his victory. Can you imagine the rapturous, overwhelmingly positive reception Maria Shriver will get when she's undoubtedly asked to speak at the Republican National Convention next year? The Republican party has billed itself as a "big tent" for a long time and never delivered. Now, it can. The views of smaller, limited government, of genuine national security concern, of governing by reason rather than emotion, are uniting this party. There's room for the Christian conservatives and the more secular, populist heroes like Rudy Guliani and, now, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Not convinced? Consider this -- the four most populous states, California, Texas, New York, and Florida, making up a full third of this nation's citizenry, are now run by Republicans (as well are a majority of the remaining states). Schwarzenegger is a good friend of the Bush family and represents the best chance a Republican presidential candidate has of winning California since Reagan. Expect Bush and Schwarzenegger to campaign hard for the president's reelection here, and if Bush does win California, he can afford to lose a dozen other swing states and still handily win a second term. A long shot? Five years ago, maybe. But Bush's approval ratings, believe it or not, are higher in California now than they were before his first election, and with a strong, overwhelmingly elected new Republican governor, Bush's chances just got a huge boost.
Of course, that all depends on Schwarzenegger actually doing a kick-ass job in turning the state around over the next twelve months. But with Gray Davis's approval ratings the lowest of any major political figure in history (yes, even lower than Nixon's after Watergate), it's hard to believe Arnold won't at least be considered a step up. Only in America could one of the nation's richest celebrities be a "populist leader." But hey, at least he seems to genuinely care, and has surrounded himself with the smartest minds he could find -- Republicans, Independents, and Democrats alike.
I think the people will give him a chance. I know I would.
It struck me, while watching Schwarzenegger's victory speech, how terrified Democratic leaders must be tonight. Certainly things have been going well for the Democrats in recent months, considering the decreasing Bush poll numbers and the impressive fundraising efforts of Dean, Clark, and others. Even the "story" out of Iraq has been successfully spun as negative, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary (Iraqi citizens supporting the ouster of Saddam by an 8 to 1 margin, and a particularly Bush-vindicating David Kay interim inspection report). The Democrats even got to take some pot shots at Rush Limbaugh recently, trying to destroy an old nemesis presumably just for the hell of it. And yet, in an overwhelmingly Democratic state, Democrats not only lost the recall election, but by a shockingly wide margin -- even wider if you consider ultraconservative Republican McClintock's 12% of the vote, which combined with Schwarzenegger means California voters supported a Republican candidate by more than a two to one margin over Bustamante. (That's of total voters, by the way, not just those who supported the recall.) Think about the ramifications of this. Schwarzenegger is a candidate who is probably the closest to my views politically of any candidate in recent memory, exactly the right combination of conservative and progressive viewpoints, and he won the people over. A very good sign should I ever seriously consider politics!
But it's actually not his viewpoints and positions that I think are scaring the Democrats tonight. No, I think it's that Jay Leno introduced his acceptance speech, that tons of respected Democrats supported his candidacy, and that Maria Shriver and many in the "Kennedy Clan" were cheering on stage for his victory. Can you imagine the rapturous, overwhelmingly positive reception Maria Shriver will get when she's undoubtedly asked to speak at the Republican National Convention next year? The Republican party has billed itself as a "big tent" for a long time and never delivered. Now, it can. The views of smaller, limited government, of genuine national security concern, of governing by reason rather than emotion, are uniting this party. There's room for the Christian conservatives and the more secular, populist heroes like Rudy Guliani and, now, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Not convinced? Consider this -- the four most populous states, California, Texas, New York, and Florida, making up a full third of this nation's citizenry, are now run by Republicans (as well are a majority of the remaining states). Schwarzenegger is a good friend of the Bush family and represents the best chance a Republican presidential candidate has of winning California since Reagan. Expect Bush and Schwarzenegger to campaign hard for the president's reelection here, and if Bush does win California, he can afford to lose a dozen other swing states and still handily win a second term. A long shot? Five years ago, maybe. But Bush's approval ratings, believe it or not, are higher in California now than they were before his first election, and with a strong, overwhelmingly elected new Republican governor, Bush's chances just got a huge boost.
Of course, that all depends on Schwarzenegger actually doing a kick-ass job in turning the state around over the next twelve months. But with Gray Davis's approval ratings the lowest of any major political figure in history (yes, even lower than Nixon's after Watergate), it's hard to believe Arnold won't at least be considered a step up. Only in America could one of the nation's richest celebrities be a "populist leader." But hey, at least he seems to genuinely care, and has surrounded himself with the smartest minds he could find -- Republicans, Independents, and Democrats alike.
I think the people will give him a chance. I know I would.
