Tuesday, October 28, 2003
Statistical Spinning
According to published Pentagon and military reports, of the 150,000 soldiers in Iraq, the vast majority in the age group of 18-25, about 300 have been murdered over a period of about a year.
That's a death rate of about 1 in 500.
According to the U.S. census and the Bureau of Justice, of the 250,000 18-25 year old residents in Chicago, about 450 have been murdered over a period of an average year.
That's a death rate of about 1 in 550.
Considering the first is a war in which militants, Ba'athists, and terrorists are actively trying to kill us (sometimes with bounties and rewards for success), and the latter reflects the life of an average guy living in one of the nation's most popular cities, I'd say Bush kinda has a point that the media overhypes the number of military killed in action. Especially egregious are those, such as certain Democratic presidential contenders, who compare Iraq with Vietnam -- an insult to Vietnam vets, who were being lost sometimes more than 100 per day (58,000 killed in total).
Don't misunderstand me here: any death of a young man or woman, especially one who devotes their life to our country, is a horrible, unacceptable event. But considering the chances of being murdered while serving in Iraq is statistically comparable per year to being murdered while residing in a large American city, a little sense of proportion in the news coverage would be nice. (Personally, I'd like to see both numbers a hell of a lot lower.)
According to published Pentagon and military reports, of the 150,000 soldiers in Iraq, the vast majority in the age group of 18-25, about 300 have been murdered over a period of about a year.
That's a death rate of about 1 in 500.
According to the U.S. census and the Bureau of Justice, of the 250,000 18-25 year old residents in Chicago, about 450 have been murdered over a period of an average year.
That's a death rate of about 1 in 550.
Considering the first is a war in which militants, Ba'athists, and terrorists are actively trying to kill us (sometimes with bounties and rewards for success), and the latter reflects the life of an average guy living in one of the nation's most popular cities, I'd say Bush kinda has a point that the media overhypes the number of military killed in action. Especially egregious are those, such as certain Democratic presidential contenders, who compare Iraq with Vietnam -- an insult to Vietnam vets, who were being lost sometimes more than 100 per day (58,000 killed in total).
Don't misunderstand me here: any death of a young man or woman, especially one who devotes their life to our country, is a horrible, unacceptable event. But considering the chances of being murdered while serving in Iraq is statistically comparable per year to being murdered while residing in a large American city, a little sense of proportion in the news coverage would be nice. (Personally, I'd like to see both numbers a hell of a lot lower.)
